Do 80% of young people really “grow out” of being Transgender?
There is an often quoted “statistic” thrown around that around 80% of transgender young people “grow out of” being transgender. It’s also called “desistance”, and sometimes erroneously stated as “detransition”.
It’s a figure that is persistently used by trans hostile people and groups to deny trans identities and trans related healthcare to young people, and is often cited as “evidence” that being transgender is just a fad, phase or something trendy.
It’s also highly contested, poorly researched, and , speaking as a trans person - complete and total rubbish.
Here’s a brief explanation why.
What is “desistance”?
Desistance is the idea that someone, usually a child or young person, “grows out” of being transgender during or shortly after puberty. Simply put, that they suddenly stop being transgender.
The Research
Most of the so called “research” on desistance is quite old (going back to the 1970s & 1980s), and most of it starts by making a number of fundamentally flawed assumptions.
The most common of these are that cross gender behaviour is:
Undesirable
An identifier of future sexuality (ie that trans feminine young people are really gay)
A reliable method of determining the above.
In other words, most cited studies didn’t even look at transgender young people, but looked at young people who displayed cross gender behaviour - otherwise known as Gender Non-Conformity, and then spuriously conflated that with homosexuality.
Another aspect to note is that much “research” has been conducted by known trans hostile clinicians, researchers and academics (such as Zucker, Bradly, Bailey and Singh, among others).
While apparently well regarded within the medical community, these figures, their views and their “research” are regarded as highly biased, deeply harmful and out of touch by the trans community at large.
It is a major and continuing issue that most research regarding transgender people is conducted by hostile cisgender (non-trans) people looking for a “cause” or “reason” to explain why trans people exist in order to push a “cure” - rather than address the prevalent transphobia in society.
The Steensma 2011 Study
The often quoted 80% statistic originates from the Desisting and persisting gender dysphoria after childhood study by Steensma et al in 2011, and to say it is deeply flawed would be an understatement.
While this particular study did indeed include some transgender young people, it had huge problems with definitions, methodology & follow up.
The key problems are:
Including participants who had been “diagnosed” using differing criteria from DSM* IV & V - mixing up young people who had dysphoria, those that had only socially transitioned and those who were non conforming. (*Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders)
Treating those different participants as though they were all the same.
Counting participants who could not be contacted during follow up as having “desisted”
Counting participants who did not have dysphoria differently at the start and end of the study
Putting it really simply - if you start a study with 100 people, some transgender and most not - but say they are all transgender, then finish the study by counting those you lost track of, and those who weren’t really transgender to start with as having “desisted” or stopped being transgender - then you end up with an 80%+ “desistance” rate.
It has been noted that other studies suffered from the same fundamental flaws as the Steensma study above.
Interestingly however, Steensma conducted a follow up study (Factors associated with desistance and persistence of childhood gender dysphoria) in 2013 which addressed these issues and looked at a key additional factor - the intensity of gender dysphoria experienced - and the results were dramatically different.
This study found that young people who actually met the clinical guidelines for gender dysphoria as children generally ended up as transgender adults, and this was a good indicator of those who would go on to transition medically.
This makes perfect sense when considering that later, properly conducted research (Gender Cognition in Transgender Children, 2015) found that children who meet the current clinical guidelines for gender dysphoria are as consistent in their gender identity as the general population.
Dr K Zucker & the 80% claim
Dr K Zucker, formerly of the Toronto CAMH clinic, has also claimed that gender dysphoria desisted in 80 percent of cases. However, when patient files at the clinic were reviewed by independent investigators they found that 42 percent never even met the clinical criteria for juvenile gender dysphoria to start with.
Zucker and his research are no stranger to controversy, including conducting a study where prepubscent boys with gender dysphoria were rated by physical attractiveness.
The Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry noted in a 2003 report (no longer available) that Zucker’s techniques were “something disturbingly close to reparative therapy for homosexuals,” (aka Conversion Therapy), and the author of the report, Phyllis Burke, questioned the idea that transgender children should be treated as mentally ill by saying, “The diagnosis of GID* in children, as supported by Zucker and his colleagues, is simply child abuse.”
*Gender Identity Disorder was a precursor diagnosis to Gender Dysphoria.
In 2015 the CAMH clinic in Toronto was closed down and Zucker fired, following an independent investigation which noted many disturbing findings, including treatment methodology 30 years out of date, intrusive sexual questioning of children, conversion therapy practices and inappropriate photography of children, among many other issues.
It remains surprising that such a figure was given influence over young people’s lives for so long, and even more surprising that the NHS continued to work with such a figure. It is no surprise to find that the failed NHS GID service for young people suffers from many of the same issues as Zucker’s original clinic did, given it was built utilising the same model and input from Zucker.
What it does highlight is that the medical and research communities, even today, routinely ignore or refuse to listen to issues raised by transgender people. There is a dominant, prevalent culture of “we know best” that is rooted in the belief within those communities that it is preferable trans people did not exist.
Conclusion
The “Desistance” claim is a myth, junk science built upon a foundation of homophobia, transphobia, bad science and poor statistics, and promoted by those hostile to trans people of all ages in order to justify harms such as conversion therapy, denial of trans identities and removal of transgender rights.
Sources & Additional Reading:
The End of the Desistance Myth - Brynn Tannehill, Huffpost
Dr. Kenneth Zucker’s War on Transgenders - Japhy Grant, Queerty
The Controversial Research on 'Desistance' in Transgender Youth - Jon Brook, KQED
The studies that tell you some trans kids grow up to change their mind are deeply flawed. Here’s why. - Ugla Stefanía, i